Pls sir, Target?

The above question, asked by so many retail investors at the end of 2017 that it became a meme, has started appearing once again in the crypto community.  It is easy to pluck a moonshot number out of the air, but Bitcoin predictions are notoriously inaccurate.  Obviously no-one has a crystal ball, however an increasing number of serious analysts have turned their attention to this question. Some sensible models now exist, and as Bitcoin gains wide acceptance as a new class of asset, comparisons to legacy assets are now more realistic.

Meanwhile, we have entered uncharted territory. Governments have collectively decided that they aren’t going to be limited by annoying things like debt-to-GBP ratios, ushering in a new era of early-MMT (modern monetary theory). This has caused stock markets to surge to all-time-highs despite us being in an unprecedented economic crisis, and other asset bubbles also appear well underway.

Many have turned to Gold, which briefly made new all-time-highs. However, attention has rightly turned to a more scarce & digital alternative to Gold … i.e. Bitcoin.

Given the number of people with exposure to Bitcoin, we are probably entering a new ‘early majority’ phase … where Bitcoin starts to go mainstream.  We can see how that might be facilitated, with PayPal recently opening up crypto purchases for their US customers with the aim to open it to all of their >300 million customers globally.

If that is the case, then we will likely 10x the number of Bitcoin investors in the next bull cycle that we are entering (confirmed when Bitcoin breaks its all-time high price which appears imminent)

So what happens to price?

Below is a table of assets and their approximate sizes, along with the equivalent price per Bitcoin should it reach the same ‘market cap’ size:

Asset Size in $ Equivalent price per BTC
Bitcoin ATH ~$370 billion $19,900
  1 Trillion   $54,000
USD M0 Supply 1.9 Trillion $102,000
Apple   2.1 Trillion $113,000
FAANG stocks   6 Trillion $322,000
Nasdaq 2000 bubble   6.7 Trillion $360,000
Gold   ~9 Trillion $484,000
Negative Yielding Bonds ~17 Trillion $918,000
Global Equities 100 Trillion $5.4million
Global Real Estate 200 Trillion $10.8million
Which assets could Bitcoin ‘flippen’?

Below is a table of the most prominent Bitcoin forecasting models and their predictions for where we might be in 12 months:

Model / Forecast Price per BTC
Bayern LB Stock-to-Flow $90,000
PlanB Stock-to-Flow $100,000
JP Morgan (2.6 Trillion – matching private sector investment in Gold) $140,000
Logarithmic Regression (Rainbow Chart – 01/01/2021) $185,000
‘Top Cap’ Model (Willy Woo) $200,000-300,000
Stock-to-Flow Cross-Asset Model (PlanB – 2020 to 2024) $288,000
CitiFX Technical Analysis (end 2021) $318,315
Fibonnaci Extension (21x retracement by end 2021 – fits last cycle) $352,088
‘Cycle Repeat’ Model (Digitalik, Oct 2021) $394,500

Prior Halving Cycle Returns

  $ Price @ Halving Subsequent Peak Multiple Days Estimate?
1 12.2 1,156.12 ~95 371  
2 662.78 20,089 ~30 525  
3 8804.48 ??? ~10-30x ? ~500 ? $90,000-260,000

Time will tell whether ‘halving’ returns are diminishing (halving 2 returned roughly 1/3rd of halving 1) or not

Comparison of multiples of cycle peaks

  $ Price Peak Subsequent $ Post-Halving Peak Multiple Estimate?
0>1  31.9 1,156.12 ~36x  
1>2  1,156.12 20,089 ~17  
2>3  20,089 ??? ~8-17 $160,000-329,000

Peak to peak multiples may also be diminishing (roughly halving each time)

Each investor will have to decide for themselves which values / forecasts are reasonable or not, and when comparing to the size of other asset classes whether you should include the entire cryptocurrency universe, or not.

 

My alternative to having a price target threshold for taking profits:

Time-based Profit-Taking

If you believe that Bitcoin’s cycles will continue and revolve around halving events, then you should begin to unwind your investment in Bitcoin 350-525 days after a halving event and then scaling back in following approximately a year after an obvious price peak.

This cycle, that means you should be selling from June to December 2021 … probably with increasing intensity each month.

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If you liked this article, please consider donating to my son’s cold storage (which he won’t get for 11.5 years, when he turns 18): 1AzmnauEdrTZbhrE7z3o4JPe2bTJKMXLyv

1 Bitcoin Giveaway

The private keys to the 1BTC wallet at: 3HX5tttedDehKWTTGpxaPAbo157fnjn89s were generated from a 12-word mnemonic seed

Over the next ~30 days I will be releasing the words (or a clue to a word) on my various social media pages:

http://www.twitter.com/alistairmilne
http://www.instagram.com/alistairmilne
http://www.facebook.com/Alistair-Milne-2223171821063286/
http://www.alistairmilne.com

At certain points I will lock some of my social media accounts to give early followers the best chance of finding all seed words.

To try to prevent brute forcing, I may give the last 3/4 words all at once

First step: find a wallet that accepts a 12-word seed to restore a wallet … blink and you’ll miss it!

Good luck!

Solo Cryptosteel Capsule giveaway competition rules

May 2020

Really happy to be giving away this ‘Solo’ Cryptosteel Capsule on Instagram (@alistairmilne) … below are the terms and conditions!

The Competition

  1. No purchase is necessary to enter or to win the Competition and any purchase made will not increase the chance of winning.
  2. This Competition will run for the “Competition Period” which shall be from 13:00GMT on the 6th May 2020 until 23:59GMT on 13th May 2020 (the “Closing Date”). By entering this Competition you are deemed to have accepted these terms and conditions (“T&Cs”). The details of the Competition form part of these T&Cs. You should print and retain a copy of these T&Cs for reference. Any breach of these T&Cs may result in a prize being forfeited, at Alistair Milne’s discretion.
  3. By entering this contest, you agree to a complete release of Instagram from any or all liability in connection with this contest.
  4. This competition is in no way sponsored, endorsed, administered by, or associated with Instagram and Instagram shall in no way be liable for any losses whatsoever arising from this competition and/or the Prize. You are providing your information to Alistair Milne and not to Instagram.
  5. To participate in this Competition, entrants must meet the following requirements (the “Eligibility Criteria”):
    • be at least 18 years of age or older; and
    • have access to the internet; and
    • have a valid and active Instagram account

How to Enter

  1. During the Competition Period, Alistair Milne will post The Competition Post (“Competition Post”) on Instagram. There will be one prize. The Winner (as defined below) will be chosen at random. Every person who meets the Eligibility Criteria (“Entrant”) shall be entitled during the Competition Period, to do the following in order to enter (entries will not be deemed complete unless these steps are completed):
    • Instagram:
      1. Follow @alistairmilne
      2. Tag 2 friends who would love this account
    • The Competition must be entered in the Entrant’s own name and using the Entrant’s own Instagram account. The Competition may not be entered on behalf of anyone else and only one entry per person will be submitted.
    • Anyone found to use multiple accounts to enter will be ineligible.
    • No bulk, software-generated, automatic, or third-party entries shall be accepted. If a false name is used, that Entry will be disqualified.
    • Only entries that have been completed in full with a valid ‘Entry’ will be entered into the competition. Alistair Milne does not accept any responsibility for late entries and cannot be held responsible for any inability to submit entries as a result of computer service, systems, and/or server failure, error, interruption, defect or delay or any other technical malfunction including social media platform failure.

Winner Selection

  1. One Winner will be selected for the prize (described below). The Winner will be announced on a separate social media post as well as a comment added to the Competition Post within 48 hours following the Competition Period.

The Prize

  1. There will be one winner during the Competition Period (the “Winner”). One winner will win:
  2. If the Prize is no longer available due to circumstances beyond Alistair Milne’s control, a prize of equal or greater value will be provided. The Prize is only redeemable by the named Winner. It must not be sold on.
  3. Alistair Milne is not responsible for the Winner not collecting the prize.

Contacting The Winner

  1. Alistair Milne will make reasonable efforts to notify the Winner of the Prize by announcing this on the Alistair Milne’s social media as well as commenting on the comment used to submit the Entry, then proceeding to communicate over private messaging to gain more details. Alistair Milne is not responsible for any contact details which recorded incorrectly or security settings of the Instagram account prohibiting personal messaging. If having made those efforts it is not possible to contact the Winner within 1 week following the Winner Selection notification, Alistair Milne reserves the right to offer the Winner’s Prize to the next valid Entrant. Any reselection will be undertaken in accordance with these T&Cs.
  2. The Prize will be sent to the Winner following successful notification of the Winner. 

Limitations of Liability

  1. Alistair Milne reserves the right to withdraw, change or cancel the Competition at any time. Alistair Milne’s decision in all matters will be final, and no correspondence will be entered into.
  2. The Prize must be taken as stated and unless otherwise specified cannot be deferred. There will be no cash or other alternative offered. Once a Prize has been allocated it cannot be transferred.
  3. Alistair Milne excludes all liability for any losses and/or damages of whatever nature and howsoever arising to the fullest extent permitted by applicable laws.
  4. All Entrants details will be used in relation to the administration of this Competition.

Parisian “Gilet Jaunes” Bitcoin Mural

At the end of 2018, I was approached by artist ‘PBoy‘ about creating a Bitcoin puzzle inside a mural painting in Paris.  As I was already a fan of his work, I was pleased to provide the seed funding of $1000 as the reward for anyone who was able to decipher the clues and access the BTC stored at the address disclosed publicly.

I should make it clear – I had no input beyond providing the initial prize funds.  All credit for this wonderful and unique piece of art that engaged a broad audience goes to PBoy and his collaborators.

Work started on 2nd January 2019:

9s6w-koj

In the early hours of the 7th January, the finished piece was revealed to the world:

boixpzl

It didn’t take long for word to spread about this amazing piece of artwork, with its hidden treasure within!

The painting achieved media coverage not just in France, but worldwide … from Germany to Mexico:

The mural also got some mainstream French TV coverage:

 

Needless to say I am very pleased with the attention both the painting and Bitcoin has received as a result of PBoy’s hard work and priceless creativity.

For those curious about the solution: https://www.pboy-art.com/single-post/2019/01/13/Solution-de-l%C3%A9nigme-de-la-fresque-La-Libert%C3%A9-guidant-le-peuple-2019

We may surprise everyone with another puzzle in the coming months … stay tuned!