Here’s a review of my 2010 predictions, made in Dec 2009:
– Upon Conservatives winning the General Election in the UK, the pound will strengthen
* Partially right, we have a Conservative-led coalition instead
– Housing markets in the UK and US will surprise to the up-side as mortgage lenders become more aggressive and competitive
* Still not happening, in the UK people are still repaying their mortgages as a record rate to put themselves on a more stable financial footing. Lenders have still not loosened their criteria – may change in 2011
– S&P500 will hit/break through 1350 (+22% from where it is now)
* Well, I’m an optimist! S&P finished at 1258 +12.8% for 2010
– The US Dollar will strengthen against the Euro, confounding the sceptics (my guess is to ~$1.25 to the Euro)
* It did strengthen, but only by 7% this year. The Euro crisis may continue in 2011 making this exchange rate very volatile and hard to predict.
– Oil will be over $90/barrel by the end of the year
* Spot on, finished at $91
– Gold will not be >$1200 by the end of 2010
* Totally wrong, I still think Gold is over-bought (compared with Silver, for example) however the ‘trend is your friend’ (until it bends!)
– India will grow as fast, if not faster than China
* Not far off! China is having to put the brakes on their economy as fears of a bubble grow.
Psychologically, it is important we are back above pre-Lehman collapse levels (even if this is some way off the stock market peak). People are starting to sound positive and fears of a double-dip appear to have been proven wrong. Hopefully this will mean that the companies hoarding cash will start investing it and help create a self-sustaining global recovery.